If you got up as early as I did this morning you saw a beautiful golden moon with a halo of mist setting in the west.
And if gave me a great idea for a post: The Moon is Setting on the Buyer’s Housing Market.
The best (or worst) prices in a real estate market tend to cycle in about 12 months after a peak. The fall of 2008 and early 2009 will probably be the worst we will ever see in this market: inventory wasn’t at an all-time high, but buyer demand was due to the stock market crash and job losses.
Since then market inventory has been steadily winnowing down and interest rates have stayed fantastic. We are still high inventory-wise, but by this time next fall we should be about where we need to be in terms of having an equal supply of buyers and sellers.
The reason inventory is going down? Foreclosure and short sale homes forcing housing prices in the general market to fall in line with the real income and assets of buyers in the market.
Plus, strictly speaking, except for job transfers most people don’t need to move, and so more sellers are keeping thier homes of the market. Because there’s no longer the incentive of a lottery check at the closing table, sellers who otherwise don’t need to move are staying put.
We’re heading towards a balanced real estate market and the upshot is that prices will start to rise again. My guess is that it will take another six months to a year beyond that point before the media and general public realize the market has recovered (and before you start to notice prices bumping up instead of falling).
So, to restate the point I made in last Friday’s post both here at www.SeanHess.com and at www.StAugustineTeamRealty.com, the time to buy is now.
Prices will never be better. Selection will never be better. Interest rates will never be better.